Latest incidence and electrocardiographic predictors of atrial fibrillation: a prospective study from China.

BACKGROUND: China bears the biggest atrial fibrillation (AF) burden in the world. However, little is known about the incidence and predictors of AF. This study aimed to investigate the current incidence of AF and its electrocardiographic (ECG) predictors in general community individuals aged over 60 years in China. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study, recruiting subjects who were aged over 60 years and underwent annual health checkups from April to July 2015 in four community health centers in Songjiang District, Shanghai, China. The subjects were then followed up from 2015 to 2019 annually. Data on sociodemographic characteristics, medical history, and the resting 12-lead ECG were collected. Kaplan-Meier curve was used for showing the trends in AF incidence and calculating the predictors of AF. Associations of ECG abnormalities and AF incidence were examined using Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: This study recruited 18,738 subjects, and 351 (1.87%) developed AF. The overall incidence rate of AF was 5.2/1000 person-years during an observation period of 67,704 person-years. Multivariable Cox regression analysis indicated age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.07; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.06-1.09; P < 0.001), male (HR, 1.30; 95% CI: 1.05-1.62; P = 0.018), a history of hypertension (HR, 1.55; 95% CI: 1.23-1.95; P < 0.001), a history of cardiac diseases (HR, 3.23; 95% CI: 2.34-4.45; P < 0.001), atrial premature complex (APC) (HR, 2.82; 95% CI: 2.17-3.68; P < 0.001), atrial flutter (HR, 18.68; 95% CI: 7.37-47.31; P < 0.001), junctional premature complex (JPC) (HR, 3.57; 95% CI: 1.59-8.02; P = 0.002), junctional rhythm (HR, 18.24; 95% CI: 5.83-57.07; P < 0.001), ventricular premature complex (VPC) (HR, 1.76; 95% CI: 1.13-2.75, P = 0.012), short PR interval (HR, 5.49; 95% CI: 1.36-22.19; P = 0.017), right atrial enlargement (HR, 6.22; 95% CI: 1.54-25.14; P = 0.010), and pacing rhythm (HR, 3.99; 95% CI: 1.57-10.14; P = 0.004) were independently associated with the incidence of AF. CONCLUSIONS: The present incidence of AF was 5.2/1000 person-years in the studied population aged over 60 years in China. Among various ECG abnormalities, only APC, atrial flutter, JPC, junctional rhythm, short PR interval, VPC, right atrial enlargement, and pacing rhythm were independently associated with AF incidence.

Contemporary survival and anticoagulation of patients with atrial fibrillation: A community based cohort study in China.

Backgrounds: The understanding of death in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) in China is limited. This study aimed to assess the contemporary survival of AF patients in China and to explore risk factors for deaths. Methods: This was a prospective community-based cohort study including 559 AF patients, who were followed-up from July 2015 to December 2020. Results: During 66-month follow-up, there were 200 deaths (56.5% cardiovascular, 40.0% non-cardiovascular, and 3.5% unknown causes) among 559 AF patients with the median age of 76 years. The top three causes of death were heart failure (33.0%), ischemic stroke (17.0%) and cancer (16.5%). Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated baseline variables positively associated with all-cause death were age (HR: 1.10, 95% CI: 1.08-1.13), AF subtype (HR: 1.37, 95% CI: 1.08-1.73), prior myocardial infarction (HR: 3.40, 95% CI: 1.48-7.78), previous tumor (HR: 2.61, 95% CI: 1.37-4.98), hypoglycemic therapy at baseline (HR: 1.81, 95% CI: 1.13-2.91), but body weight (HR: 0.98, 95% CI: 0.97-1.00) and use of calcium channel blocker (CCB) (HR: 0.62, 95% CI: 0.41-0.95) played a protective role to all-cause death. Of patients who were alive at the end of follow-up, 24.0% were on oral anticoagulants (OAC) alone, 4.5% on dual antithrombotic therapy, 33.1% on antiplatelet agents alone and 38.4% weren't on any antithrombotic medication. Conclusion: Ischemic stroke still remains one of the leading causes of death and OAC is seriously underused in AF patients in China. Independent risk factors for death are age, AF subtype, previous tumor, prior myocardial infarction, hypoglycemic therapy, low body weight and no CCB use. Clinical Trial Registration: http://www.chictr.org.cn/ (ChiCTR-ICR-15007036).

Survey of Antithrombotic Treatment in Rural Patients (>60 years) with Atrial Fibrillation in East China.

The prevalence and antithrombotic treatment of atrial fibrillation (AF) in Chinese rural population is not well known. The aim of this study was to investigate the extent to which antithrombotic treatment was prescribed for rural AF patients >60 years. We identified 828 AF patients from 36734 rural residents >60 years in Shanghai China. Our data indicated the overall prevalence rate of AF was 2.3% in rural population >60 years in East China and 38.9% of AF patients underwent antithrombotic therapy, including warfarin (5.9%), aspirin (29.6%), clopidogrel (2.9%) and aspirin combined with clopidogrel (0.5%). Of enrolled subjects, 98.4% had CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥1, 72.0% had HAS-BLED score <3 and 59.2% had CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2 with HAS-BLED score <3. Missing early detection (34.9%), delay in seeking treatment for asymptomatic AF (25.5%) and doctors's incomplete inform of AF-related risk of stroke to patients (21.7%) were three dominant causes for failing anticoagulant usage. In conclusion, most AF patients were with a high risk of thrombosis and a low risk of bleeding in China, but a large majority of them failed to take anticoagulants mainly for missing an early screening of AF and lack of awareness on AF for both patients and primary care physicians.